That is at least what ‘The Economist‘ is thinking:
Military setbacks and ideological disputes have put al-Qaeda on the defensive. Osama Bin Laden’s messages from the wilderness get little attention nowadays. Al-Qaeda has been unable to land a blow on Western soil since the 2005 London bombings. Its leaders lurk in Pakistan’s tribal belt, hiding from regular lethal attacks by America’s unmanned Predator aircraft. Their Pushtun hosts are tiring of their troublesome guests. Perhaps most damaging, former supporters publicly denounce its ideology.
Read more here
The worst case scenario is that Al-Qaeda is quietly, secretly reorganizing for the next phase of guerrilla warfare.
In classical guerrilla warfare “phase 2′” involves massive terrorism.
The latest CIA/FBI news is that Al-Qaeda is training “Blond blue-eyed European-looking Arabs” as terrorist operatives.
What does Al-Qaeda offer to the masses? Only fight and more fight, killing and dying (most of the latter done by the followers, of course, not the leaders). Eventually, one would imagine, the joys of jihad pale in comparison to the more sedate pleasures of productive everyday living: schooling, doctoring, farming, grocery shopping and the like.
